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Quick Count Presidential Election 2009

Selasa, 07 Juli 2009

Quick Count Presidential Election 2009

Pemilu (Public Vote) President 2009 Pemilu President will hold on 8 July 2009. Three pairs of candidates and the presidential candidate's vice presidential candidate has been set. Megawati Soekarno Putri pair with Prabowo Subianto, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) with a pair Boediono, while Jusuf Kalla pair with Wiranto.

A number of institutions continue to survey results released newest survey from various perspectives. In terms of popularity, seemingly SBY Boediono pair was in the first order. Even a survey, the institute issued a prediction that elections will take a President lap. Although the institute is funded by the survey is one of the candidates, but the survey results should be remain on the science of statistics, namely meet azas kerandoman data. .
Effect survey

There are three reactions that appear in the middle of the community associated with the results of the survey. The first effect is called Bandwagon effect or participate-follow-up. Community will support the candidate who chooses by the survey. Bandwagon effect also commonly called Cromo effect. Second effect is the effect Bradley or also commonly called the Wilder effect, where the community will support the candidate who does not chooses survey by the release. And the last is neutral, where people are not affected the results of the survey.

Both the bandwagon effect and the effect is usually only Bradley will affect the swing voter or voters who have not yet determine the options that make the survey as a preference. Candidate that will benefit by the existence of this effect is that candidates are able to tell him in accordance with the proportion of the influence of the level effects. If viewed from the culture of our society, most people tended to support candidates' abused ', but most others will support the candidate who is very popular. Therefore, to win the Presidential Election this time successful team must see the beautiful condition that occurs in the community and respond with the appropriate political communication.

However, please note that the survey conducted before the plebiscite is held only public opinion. Surveyed that when they choose a candidate not later when the vote remains a candidate is selected. So he can still select a candidate, or candidate to change the option B, or not even choose.
Quick Count and Exit Poll

It is different with the Quick Count and Exit Poll. Count in and Quick Exit Poll, which released the results is the fact that occurred in the poll. Although the two different methods, but the sample is a sample taken after the real vote takes place, not just opinion. In the Quick Count this sample is the TPS, while in the Exit Poll in which the sample is an individual voter. Samples are taken randomly with a certain amount that, according to population statistics can represent voters.

8 July 2009 we will again see how science will be able to 'read' more quickly and accurately the results of the 2009 Presidential Election. Much faster than sound recapitulation manually. However, the results of Quick Exit Poll and the Count can not be used as benchmarks. Which is the basis of the results remain KPU. Moreover, if the difference in sound acquisition Quick Count is below the margin of error, it may be the result reversed.
Are Quick Count is free from the interests of Politics?

Election Quick Count 2009Jawabannya is not. Both the Count and Quick Exit Poll still are used for political interests. Usually people believe will direct result of the release of Quick Count. This can be used by candidates who play to disguise the foul his dishonest. Therefore, many institutions require a survey through the Quick Count tool that can be a benchmark in the community. However, it remains at risk if the results issued institutions survey is significantly different in terms of sequence acquisition vote because people can cause restlessness.

In this case the role of political elites is crucial to muffle emotions his constituent. If the political elite can be noble, ready to win less, then the community can be ascertained under will also be the case. With the victory is a record obtained with the honest and polite and provides good political education to the community.

Congratulations for the 2009 Presidential Election, I hope to run direct, general, free, confidential, honest and fair or LUBER JURDIL. Anyone who will become President and Vice President, let the people must be the actual winner. Society must be living side by side in peaceful, prosperous, intelligent and dignified, in accordance with Pancasila and trust the 1945 Constitution.

Keep Spirit Indonesia, Merdeka!!!!

2 komentar:

bejo mengatakan...

Pilihlah yang terbaik menurutmu,
karena akupun memilih yang terbaik menurutku

stroevanka mengatakan...

haha siap bos,,,,, sampe karang pun tintaku lum ilang,,,,, dan pilihanku yang jadi nomer 1

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